![]() ![]() Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. *Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft *East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay.2-4 ft *Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…3-5 ft *Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor… 4-7 ft *Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…5-8 ft *Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay…5-10 ft The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. National Hurricane Center Forecast Notes: This will be in addition to the water pushed up from the storm surge. Again, this is water falling down from the sky. The GFS Model plot has a large area of over 4 inches of rain, but the immediate coastline near and north of Tampa are in the 5 to 15 inch rainfall potential. The National Hurricane Center predicts up to 10 foot storm surge into Tampa Bay! While it may not have a direct landfall, the stronger side will be pounding the coast for a long duration. It may barely move or stall Wednesday into Thursday, before getting a push back to the north again. The trouble seen here with this forecast solution is the slow down of the storm right along the coast near Tampa. Motion Slowing Down Forecast Animation: GFS Model 8 PM Tue to 8 PM Fri The LEFT (West in this case) side has the wind and water flow opposing the forward motion, thus contradicting itself and resulting in weaker impact. This will bring the maximum impact to Florida. With respect to forward motions, the RIGHT (East in this case) has the winds and water moving with the forward direction. ![]() Hurricane Structure: Stronger On Right Side * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West The National Hurricane Center has this west of Tampa, but the strongest winds and water surge will be on the right side up along the Florida coast. There is still some wiggle room and uncertainty with landfall. Please note that this (and other storms) have verified West or LEFT side of the cone, this has come back a little East. Tropical Storm force winds extend 115 miles from the center.įorecast Track/Cone: National Hurricane Center.Hurricane Force Winds reach 35 miles from the center.Hurricane Ian: Monday Afternoon Set Up Quick Stats ![]() It should be noted that in addition to the flooding impact, there will be damage from the wind itself and isolated tornadoes which come with landfalling tropical systems. I will follow up with the rain impact and potential flooding up the East Coast to the Mid-Atlantic US. However, the impact of the storm will be far-reaching. The places that get the combination of both will be most dire. The focus of this report is the Florida flooding from two sources: Rainfall and storm surge. Governor DeSantis and FEMA encouraged people to move 20 miles inland due to flooding. That is why mandatory evacuation orders were put in place for areas around Tampa. Winds are expected to increase to over 130 mph in the next two days as it crosses western Cuba and enters very warm water. Hurricane Ian continues to intensity but as of Monday afternoon remained a Category 1. ![]()
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